Marshall @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

4-4 · Power #96

final

Final

App State

4-4 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -3

✓ APP W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 27–30 APP

✓ APP (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -3

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 54%, covered 43% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -3

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 3-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 31–9; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 3.4; 55 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	NCST vs DUKE 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Very close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-3	0-3
APP PLLLL	2-5-1	29%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH O–OUU	3-4	43%	4-4
APP UOUUO	5-3	63%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSHlast 8	4-4 50%	2-6 25%	3-4 43%
APPlast 8	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MRSH 5–7 APP APP leads · 12 games since 1977 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−2.3 →−4.8▼ 2.5#93

APP−1.3 →−4.5▼ 3.2#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MRSH

Longer bar = better

APP

#106

Offense

APP better ▶

#37

#59

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#112

−0.8 #123

Turnovers

APP better ▶

−0.3 #92

72 plays #25

Pace

Even

73 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #89	30.9 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #98	6.27 #122	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.04 #127	+0.18 #106	APP
Success rate	39% #108	45% #113	Even

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #25	28.1 #92	APP
Yards / play	6.31 #38	5.74 #84	APP
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	+0.03 #36	Even
Success rate	45% #42	37% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.0 #119	8.4 #64	11.4 #104	7.6 #39	5.6 #96	13.3 #67
APP allowed	5.3 #71	11.5 #128	16.8 #114	7.5 #109	5.0 #35	12.5 #75

APP scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	6.4 #61	8.4 #64	14.8 #63	9.9 #10	8.9 #24	18.8 #11
MRSH allowed	5.6 #81	9.6 #105	15.3 #102	6.0 #72	6.9 #82	12.9 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.