Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-6 · Power #99

final

Final

New Mexico State

6-3 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

NMSU -3

✓ NMSU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 24–28 NMSU

✓ NMSU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNMSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 54%, covered 43% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNMSU -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 13–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 3.8; 51.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	GAST vs CONN 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	35–14	W	U54.5
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-6	23–38	L	O57
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLLWW	3-5	38%	2-2	2-2
NMSU WWWWW	7-2	78%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OUOOO	4-3	57%	2-6
NMSU U–UUU	2-6	25%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSUlast 8	2-6 25%	3-5 38%	4-3 57%
NMSUlast 9	6-3 67%	7-2 78%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−13.1 →−8.5▲ 4.6#107

NMSU−6.9 →−6.1▲ 0.8#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MTSU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#85

Offense

NMSU better ▶

#26

#107

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#76

−0.8 #124

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

−0.1 #74

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ MTSU faster

58 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #96	21.4 #42	NMSU
Yards / play	5.68 #69	5.68 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	+0.12 #83	Even
Success rate	40% #94	44% #98	Even

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #61	33.1 #120	NMSU
Yards / play	7.38 #5	5.81 #90	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #16	+0.16 #100	NMSU
Success rate	48% #20	46% #116	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	6.4 #61	7.3 #84	13.6 #75	5.6 #83	4.5 #116	10.1 #108
NMSU allowed	3.0 #19	7.8 #83	10.8 #41	4.9 #50	5.8 #54	10.7 #44

NMSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	5.3 #82	10.1 #34	15.4 #57	5.7 #78	8.3 #34	14.0 #56
MTSU allowed	7.1 #107	7.3 #67	14.4 #91	8.1 #116	10.6 #130	18.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.