Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Sam Houston
Closing spread
SHSU -16.5
✓ KENN W
Total
42.5
▲ Over · 45 pts
Model before kickoff
KENN 16–29 SHSU
✓ SHSU (83%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseSHSU -16.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseSHSU -16.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close42.5
Line context
Home favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseSHSU -16.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like 
SHSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: SHSU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 45 points went over 42.5, as in 2 of 4.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 86%
Favorite covered
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 14.9; 44.5 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  USU vs  UNM2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & season form |
-14.5 | 27–10 | W | U42.5 |
| Loose |  USM vs  FIU2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation |
-14.5 | 37–17 | W | O46 |
| Loose |  NAVY vs  TEM2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread |
-14.5 | 27–20 | L | O41.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & season form |
-16 | 23–17 | L | U45.5 |
ILL
FAUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Kennesaw State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHSUlast 8 | 0-8 0% | 3-4-1 43% | 4-2 67% |
Matchup
Power ratings week by week, before kickoff
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SHSU−3.3 →−12.0▼ 8.7#120
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SHSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 6 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
KENN1st game
SHSU10d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
JXST @ 
SC
LT @ 
LIB
MTSU @ 
NMSU
WKU @ 
UTEP
NIU @ 
CMU
BUFF @ 
TOL
BALL @ 
BGSU
KENT @ 
AKR
TCU @ 
TTU
WAKE @ 
DUKE