Ball State @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Wed, Nov 1, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F3 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

2-6 · Power #113

final

Final

Bowling Green

4-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -5

✓ BALL W

Total

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 18–24 BGSU

✓ BGSU (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBGSU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Line context

Home favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 50% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 40, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 5.8; 47.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	41–14	W	O37
Very close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	10–6	L	U38
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	38–21	W	O42
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-4	34–37	L	O38
Close	UTSA vs UTEP 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	52–21	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLLWW	3-4-1	43%	0-3-1	2-4-1
BGSU LWLWW	6-2	75%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UO–UU	3-4	43%	2-6
BGSU UO–UO	3-3	50%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 36–44, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 8	2-6 25%	3-4-1 43%	3-4 43%
BGSUlast 8	4-4 50%	6-2 75%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BALL 10–21 BGSU (1 tied) BGSU leads · 32 games since 1968 · BALL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−7.6 →−14.4▼ 6.8#125

BGSU−3.0 →−6.1▼ 3.1#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BALL

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#114

Offense

Even

#110

#93

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#57

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

+0.5 #30

62 plays #114

Pace

Even

59 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	BALL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #131	25.0 #63	BGSU
Yards / play	4.73 #124	5.46 #59	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #103	+0.02 #34	BGSU
Success rate	40% #96	42% #73	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #105	29.0 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #102	5.52 #65	BALL
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.19 #107	Even
Success rate	39% #112	44% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.5 #126	3.8 #130	6.3 #133	3.5 #117	6.4 #73	9.9 #112
BGSU allowed	9.5 #127	5.9 #32	15.4 #103	6.8 #91	2.9 #4	9.6 #33

BGSU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.4 #116	8.5 #61	11.9 #94	7.8 #35	2.6 #130	10.4 #105
BALL allowed	4.1 #40	11.9 #127	16.0 #108	8.3 #112	4.8 #35	13.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.