Colorado State @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

3-5 · Power #109

final

Final

Wyoming

5-3 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

WYO -6

✓ WYO W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 22–28 WYO

✓ WYO (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 53% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 6-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 24–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 6.2; 41.3 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	FAU vs UTSA 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	24–3	W	U47
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LLWWL	4-4	50%	3-1	4-2
WYO PLWWL	4-3-1	57%	2-2-1	0-2-1

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; WYO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU UOOUU	5-3	63%	3-5
WYO UO–OU	2-4	33%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 55% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%
WYOlast 8	5-3 63%	4-3-1 57%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−8.1▼ 1.0#106

WYO−2.7 →−5.2▼ 2.5#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CSU

Longer bar = better

WYO

#77

Offense

◀ CSU better

#92

#95

Defense

Even

#83

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

WYO better ▶

+0.8 #21

70 plays #40

Pace

◀ CSU faster

58 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #70	26.4 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #63	5.48 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	41% #82	45% #108	CSU

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #95	33.1 #119	WYO
Yards / play	5.13 #102	5.86 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	+0.12 #80	Even
Success rate	41% #86	43% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	7.3 #42	5.0 #122	12.3 #91	2.9 #125	11.8 #5	14.6 #46
WYO allowed	5.9 #82	6.3 #45	12.1 #57	3.4 #20	9.3 #115	12.6 #71

WYO scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	6.8 #51	6.9 #91	13.6 #74	4.6 #104	3.8 #127	8.4 #122
CSU allowed	6.4 #92	8.0 #83	14.4 #91	6.5 #86	10.4 #127	16.9 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.