Boise State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Boise State

4-4 · Power #48

final

Final

Fresno State

7-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -2.5

✓ FRES W

Total

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 26–30 FRES

✓ FRES (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 48% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 2.5-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 37–30; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 54, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.1; 44.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	APP vs UL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	21–24	L	U51.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LPPLW	3-3-2	50%	0-3-1	1-1-1
FRES WLLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-5

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OO–OU	4-2	67%	4-4
FRES OU–OU	3-3	50%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOISlast 8	4-4 50%	3-3-2 50%	4-2 67%
FRESlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →−0.6▲ 9.3#66

FRES+4.2 →+2.7▼ 1.5#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BOIS

Longer bar = better

FRES

#44

Offense

Even

#46

#91

Defense

FRES better ▶

#32

−0.6 #118

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+1.4 #4

68 plays #56

Pace

FRES faster ▶

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #56	20.6 #31	FRES
Yards / play	6.28 #38	4.97 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.04 #39	Even
Success rate	47% #23	38% #31	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #28	27.9 #85	FRES
Yards / play	5.64 #71	6.21 #119	FRES
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.15 #92	FRES
Success rate	45% #45	42% #66	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	4.8 #93	10.6 #24	15.4 #56	5.6 #81	9.0 #20	14.6 #44
FRES allowed	4.3 #46	6.9 #61	11.1 #46	3.0 #12	5.6 #55	8.6 #17

FRES scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.4 #21	7.3 #81	15.6 #53	10.8 #6	6.0 #87	16.8 #23
BOIS allowed	3.9 #31	9.6 #104	13.5 #80	4.5 #44	9.9 #124	14.4 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.