Boise State @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Memphis

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Boise State

2-2 · Power #48

final

Final

Memphis

3-1 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -3

Push

Total

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 26–31 MEM

✓ MEM (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -3

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -3

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 3-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 35–32; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 58, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.2 against an average line of 3.8; 48.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Very close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Very close	BSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–41	L	O59
Very close	FLA vs FSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	24–21	L	U58.5
Close	WAKE vs FSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	35–14	W	U62.5
Close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Close	FAU vs OHIO 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–17	L	U61.5
Close	WKU vs TROY 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	27–34	L	O55
Close	UAB vs UL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2	21–41	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LWWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-1
MEM LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS –UOO	2-1	67%	2-2
MEM OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 53 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOISlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%
MEMlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →−3.6▲ 6.3#80

MEM+6.5 →+6.1▼ 0.4#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BOIS

Longer bar = better

MEM

#66

Offense

MEM better ▶

#51

#116

Defense

MEM better ▶

#31

0.0 #73

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #61

68 plays #57

Pace

MEM faster ▶

73 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	BOIS off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #79	18.8 #40	MEM
Yards / play	5.82 #63	5.18 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #63	−0.10 #10	MEM
Success rate	43% #58	34% #22	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #31	30.8 #108	MEM
Yards / play	5.96 #60	6.77 #130	MEM
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.17 #106	MEM
Success rate	45% #46	47% #120	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	5.0 #85	10.0 #49	15.0 #71	6.0 #73	6.8 #73	12.8 #75
MEM allowed	7.0 #107	3.3 #9	10.3 #54	3.5 #38	5.0 #48	8.5 #31

MEM scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.5 #49	11.5 #31	19.0 #30	10.5 #15	7.5 #59	18.0 #26
BOIS allowed	2.5 #22	12.5 #124	15.0 #92	4.8 #61	11.0 #127	15.8 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.