San Diego State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F15 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Diego State

2-3 · Power #112

final

Final

Air Force

4-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -10.5

✓ AFA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 14–27 AFA

✓ AFA (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -10.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 10.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 49–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 13.3; 39.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MEM vs NAVY 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-12.25	28–24	L	O46.75
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	CIN vs M-OH 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-14.25	24–31	L	O44.25
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	AFA vs NAVY 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-14	13–10	L	U38
Close	NW vs ILL 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	28–10	W	U41.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	20–22	L	U51
Close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-13.25	22–21	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	2-1
AFA LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU –OUUO	2-2	50%	2-3
AFA UUOO	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
AFAlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU+1.0 →−9.4▼ 10.4#111

AFA+5.5 →+5.6▲ 0.1#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SDSU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#85

Offense

AFA better ▶

#29

#104

Defense

AFA better ▶

#21

0.0 #69

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.8 #25

65 plays #85

Pace

Even

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	SDSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #110	12.8 #11	AFA
Yards / play	5.31 #96	4.31 #8	AFA
PPA / play	+0.10 #83	−0.04 #28	AFA
Success rate	44% #49	37% #36	Even

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #37	27.2 #86	AFA
Yards / play	6.00 #57	6.09 #109	AFA
PPA / play	+0.35 #13	+0.18 #102	AFA
Success rate	54% #8	46% #120	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.4 #77	6.6 #100	12.0 #94	1.8 #130	7.4 #60	9.2 #113
AFA allowed	1.5 #10	5.3 #46	6.8 #18	2.5 #18	3.5 #19	6.0 #12

AFA scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	9.8 #21	10.3 #43	20.0 #23	5.3 #88	9.5 #25	14.8 #51
SDSU allowed	3.2 #33	12.0 #121	15.2 #98	4.8 #57	7.2 #87	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.