Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Thu, Sep 28, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

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Jacksonville State

3-1 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-3 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

JXST -7

Push

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 22–16 SHSU

✓ JXST (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -7

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -7

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 7-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 35–28; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 36, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 7.7; 47.5 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SDSU @ USU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.75	38–7	W	O41.5
Loose	MRSH @ WKU 2020 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–14	W	O43
Loose	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.75	19–13	L	U41
Loose	FAU @ FIU 2020 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–19	W	O42
Loose	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Loose	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Loose	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Loose	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Loose	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Loose	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLW	3-1	75%	0-1	2-0
SHSU WWL	2-1	67%	—	2-1

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UUUU	0-4	0%	3-1
SHSU –UO	1-1	50%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXSTlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	0-4 0%
SHSUlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−5.7▼ 0.6#91

SHSU−3.3 →−10.9▼ 7.6#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

JXST

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#84

Offense

◀ JXST better

#136

Defense

◀ JXST better

#58

+2.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−1.3 #129

72 plays #30

Pace

◀ JXST faster

50 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	JXST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #86	21.7 #55	SHSU
Yards / play	4.97 #113	5.06 #47	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #83	+0.06 #60	SHSU
Success rate	44% #55	41% #70	Even

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	SHSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	3.3 #136	11.8 #11	JXST
Yards / play	2.97 #136	4.21 #7	JXST
PPA / play	−0.28 #136	−0.12 #7	JXST
Success rate	26% #135	32% #8	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.5 #48	6.0 #106	13.5 #78	8.8 #35	3.5 #113	12.3 #76
SHSU allowed	5.7 #91	5.7 #53	11.3 #70	2.3 #20	8.0 #99	10.3 #61

SHSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.3 #117	0.0 #132	2.3 #133	1.0 #131	0.0 #132	1.0 #133
JXST allowed	2.5 #26	2.5 #6	5.0 #4	3.3 #27	3.5 #21	6.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.