Florida @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida

3-1 · Power #36

final

Final

Kentucky

4-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -1

✓ UK W

Total

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 24–25 UK

✓ UK (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -1

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUK -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -1

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 1-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 33–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 2.5; 45.6 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	45–20	W	O45
Very close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Very close	SYR vs NCST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	24–9	W	U42.5
Very close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	42–24	W	O45
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–21	W	U49.5
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Close	CCU vs APP 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	34–23	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-1
UK WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA –OUU	1-2	33%	3-1
UK OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLAlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	1-2 33%
UKlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FLA 54–22 UK FLA leads · 76 games since 1917 · UK has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA−1.7 →+9.0▲ 10.7#24

UK+6.1 →+6.6▲ 0.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FLA

Longer bar = better

#51

Offense

Even

#41

#21

Defense

Even

#19

−0.8 #108

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+0.5 #40

66 plays #74

Pace

◀ FLA faster

55 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	FLA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #78	15.5 #21	UK
Yards / play	6.23 #44	4.39 #17	UK
PPA / play	+0.17 #56	−0.11 #7	UK
Success rate	48% #27	36% #32	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	UK off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #23	13.5 #17	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #16	4.64 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #42	−0.02 #34	Even
Success rate	41% #83	28% #2	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	8.0 #38	9.8 #54	17.8 #49	4.8 #97	5.3 #90	10.0 #101
UK allowed	3.5 #46	2.5 #6	6.0 #16	4.0 #46	5.5 #57	9.5 #47

UK scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.8 #39	9.3 #58	17.0 #56	10.5 #15	10.5 #13	21.0 #7
FLA allowed	3.5 #46	4.3 #32	7.8 #34	2.5 #20	3.3 #16	5.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.