Pittsburgh @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at West Virginia

Weather at kickoff63°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

1-1 · Power #77

final

Final

West Virginia

1-1 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -2.5

✓ WVU W

Total

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 24–26 WVU

✓ WVU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 2.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 17–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 48, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 3.1; 41.4 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	BSU vs AFA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U52
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	12–36	L	U49
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–45	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WL	1-1	50%	—	—
WVU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OO	2-0	100%	1-1
WVU –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 59% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
WVUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →+1.5▼ 2.2#57

WVU−6.5 →+1.3▲ 7.8#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PITT

Longer bar = better

WVU

#84

Offense

WVU better ▶

#46

#39

Defense

◀ PITT better

#85

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

0.0 #76

69 plays #50

Pace

WVU faster ▶

74 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #53	27.5 #94	PITT
Yards / play	5.46 #90	5.70 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #83	+0.14 #97	Even
Success rate	38% #111	38% #58	WVU

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #45	17.0 #41	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #43	4.73 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #42	+0.01 #55	Even
Success rate	45% #52	33% #20	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	7.0	10.5	17.5	5.0	10.5	15.5
WVU allowed	7.0	5.0	12.0	7.0	8.5	15.5

WVU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	3.5	17.5	21.0	3.5	11.0	14.5
PITT allowed	5.0	5.0	10.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.