Syracuse @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Purdue

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

2-0 · Power #82

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-1 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

SYR -1

✓ SYR W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 28–26 PUR

✓ SYR (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -1

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSYR -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSYR -1

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 1-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 35–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.2; 48.4 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SC @ ECU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-3	20–17	P	U56.5
Close	NCST @ MSST 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	10–24	L	U55.5
Close	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	34–7	W	U50
Loose	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	38–24	W	O50
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6	14–21	L	U50
Loose	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · loose	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Loose	BAY @ WVU 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	21–27	L	U54
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	WVU @ MD 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–30	L	U57
Loose	BYU @ HOU 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	43–26	W	O62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
PUR LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: SYR away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OU	1-1	50%	2-0
PUR –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 48% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYRlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
PURlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+6.3 →+11.7▲ 5.4#11

PUR−4.2 →+1.4▲ 5.6#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SYR

Longer bar = better

PUR

#14

Offense

◀ SYR better

#82

Defense

◀ SYR better

#80

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

PUR better ▶

+1.5 #16

83 plays #3

Pace

◀ SYR faster

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	56.5 #3	28.0 #97	SYR
Yards / play	7.11 #21	5.37 #74	SYR
PPA / play	+0.46 #11	+0.09 #79	SYR
Success rate	53% #22	39% #71	SYR

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	PUR off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #74	3.5 #1	SYR
Yards / play	5.64 #78	3.24 #1	SYR
PPA / play	+0.12 #76	−0.32 #1	SYR
Success rate	39% #100	21% #1	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	20.0	21.0	41.0	15.5	0.0	15.5
PUR allowed	3.5	13.5	17.0	4.0	7.0	11.0

PUR scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	3.5	7.0	10.5
SYR allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.