Virginia @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Fri, Sep 15, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Maryland

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

0-2 · Power #85

final

Final

Maryland

2-0 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MD -16.5

✓ MD W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 19–36 MD

✓ MD (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -16.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -16.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 16.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 42–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Below normal · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 16.4; 51.8 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-20	43–10	W	O48
Close	USC vs STAN 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	28–42	L	O53.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	ECU vs NAVY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	20–23	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
MD LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OO	2-0	100%	0-2
MD UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVAlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
MDlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−11.2 →−7.7▲ 3.5#111

MD+3.0 →+8.0▲ 5.0#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UVA

Longer bar = better

#111

Offense

MD better ▶

#28

#123

Defense

MD better ▶

#42

0.0 #69

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

63 plays #94

Pace

MD faster ▶

75 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	UVA off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	13.0 #23	MD
Yards / play	4.77 #118	4.96 #60	MD
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	−0.08 #32	MD
Success rate	30% #132	37% #53	MD

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #35	42.5 #127	MD
Yards / play	6.57 #33	5.92 #105	MD
PPA / play	+0.35 #27	+0.35 #127	MD
Success rate	53% #17	53% #131	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 16 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	14.0	1.5	15.5
MD allowed	7.0	1.5	8.5	1.5	3.0	4.5

MD scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	10.5	8.0	18.5	7.5	12.0	19.5
UVA allowed	12.0	7.0	19.0	10.5	13.0	23.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.