Virginia Tech @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Rutgers

Weather at kickoff77°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

1-1 · Power #41

final

Final

Rutgers

2-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -6.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 17–24 RUTG

✓ RUTG (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -6.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRUTG -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -6.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 6.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 35–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 5.2; 37.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–20	L	U39
Loose	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Loose	ARMY vs NAVY 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	15–0	W	U35.5
Loose	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & rest	-4	27–22	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WL	1-1	50%	—	—
RUTG WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OU	1-1	50%	1-1
RUTG UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
RUTGlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →−0.7▼ 4.3#71

RUTG+1.6 →+3.6▲ 2.0#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#114

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#75

#62

Defense

RUTG better ▶

+0.5 #54

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+1.0 #32

68 plays #65

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

73 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	VT off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #87	7.0 #6	RUTG
Yards / play	4.84 #120	3.72 #6	RUTG
PPA / play	−0.04 #124	−0.23 #6	RUTG
Success rate	34% #125	31% #12	RUTG

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #71	20.5 #57	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #109	4.88 #52	VT
PPA / play	+0.20 #51	0.00 #53	Even
Success rate	43% #70	41% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

VT scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	1.0	15.5	16.5	7.0	3.0	10.0
RUTG allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	7.0

RUTG scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0	8.0	15.0	3.5	11.5	15.0
VT allowed	3.5	10.0	13.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.