Florida International @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff74°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida International

2-1 · Power #131

▲ winner

Final

UConn

0-2 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

CONN -7

✓ FIU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 19–26 CONN

✗ CONN (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCONN -7

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCONN -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCONN -7

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 7-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 6.9; 37.2 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	FAU vs UTSA 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-4.5	24–3	W	U47
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	FAU vs GASO 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–6	W	U48.5
Close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–21	W	O42
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–7	L	U45
Close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	47–14	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
CONN WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU –UO	1-1	50%	2-1
CONN –U	0-1	0%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
CONNlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−5.6 →−9.7▼ 4.1#121

CONN−5.0 →−6.4▼ 1.4#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FIU

Longer bar = better

CONN

#92

Offense

◀ FIU better

#122

#60

Defense

◀ FIU better

#101

−0.3 #85

Turnovers

◀ FIU better

−1.5 #118

55 plays #130

Pace

CONN faster ▶

62 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #95	29.5 #102	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #62	5.30 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #114	+0.17 #102	Even
Success rate	39% #96	50% #125	FIU

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	CONN off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #126	24.3 #74	FIU
Yards / play	4.87 #113	5.49 #82	FIU
PPA / play	−0.05 #126	−0.05 #33	FIU
Success rate	34% #124	37% #49	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	9.3 #7	6.7 #33	16.0 #19	7.0 #21	2.7 #45	9.7 #40
CONN allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	10.5	3.5	14.0

CONN scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5	7.0	10.5
FIU allowed	4.3 #24	8.7 #28	13.0 #28	4.3 #20	7.0 #30	11.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.