Duke @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff57°F10 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

3-0 · Power #37

▲ winner

Final

UConn

0-3 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

DUKE -22

✓ DUKE W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 34–13 CONN

✓ DUKE (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -22

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -22

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -22

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 22-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 20.4; 50.8 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Close	RUTG @ TEM 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-18	16–14	L	U42.75
Close	BAY @ KU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	45–7	W	O48.5
Close	TROY @ ULM 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	16–29	L	U49.5
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Loose	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & spread	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Loose	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	31–34	L	O50
Loose	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75
Loose	OKST @ KU 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21.5	47–7	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WLW	2-1	67%	—	1-1
CONN WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE –PO	1-0-1	100%	3-0
CONN –UU	0-2	0%	0-3

Went over in Q4. Of 40 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKElast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-0-1 100%
CONNlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.1 →+10.9▲ 6.8#20

CONN−5.0 →−8.4▼ 3.4#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DUKE

Longer bar = better

CONN

#21

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#133

#24

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#104

+1.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−1.3 #125

63 plays #109

Pace

CONN faster ▶

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #29	31.0 #110	DUKE
Yards / play	6.79 #24	5.49 #76	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.32 #23	+0.19 #111	DUKE
Success rate	54% #9	47% #118	DUKE

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	CONN off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #133	8.8 #5	DUKE
Yards / play	4.39 #131	4.09 #6	DUKE
PPA / play	−0.13 #134	−0.16 #6	DUKE
Success rate	32% #134	41% #78	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.7 #65	9.0 #64	14.7 #70	11.7 #10	9.7 #29	21.3 #11
CONN allowed	7.0 #108	11.3 #115	18.3 #112	7.0 #94	2.3 #9	9.3 #49

CONN scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	3.3 #101	0.0 #131	3.3 #131	4.7 #96	7.0 #62	11.7 #84
DUKE allowed	2.3 #20	4.7 #36	7.0 #29	0.0 #1	2.3 #9	2.3 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.