Miami @ Temple: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Temple

Weather at kickoff62°F17 mphgusts 32Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami

3-0 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Temple

2-1 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

MIA -23

✓ MIA W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 36–14 TEM

✓ MIA (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -23

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -23

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -23

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like MIA as a 23-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 9.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.6 against an average line of 22.2; 54.6 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Loose	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Loose	SYR @ CONN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-23.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Loose	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-1
TEM LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; TEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA –OU	1-1	50%	3-0
TEM –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
TEMlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+11.1 →+14.6▲ 3.5#9

TEM+1.0 →−4.2▼ 5.2#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIA

Longer bar = better

TEM

Offense

◀ MIA better

#93

#23

Defense

◀ MIA better

#100

+1.0 #22

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−1.0 #121

63 plays #106

Pace

TEM faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	43.8 #8	26.8 #92	MIA
Yards / play	8.24 #5	5.87 #104	MIA
PPA / play	+0.50 #6	+0.21 #116	MIA
Success rate	54% #11	42% #88	MIA

When TEM has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	TEM off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #115	12.5 #17	MIA
Yards / play	5.41 #88	4.63 #31	MIA
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	−0.04 #32	MIA
Success rate	40% #89	32% #10	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.3 #15	13.3 #20	23.7 #14	8.3 #38	12.7 #8	21.0 #12
TEM allowed	4.7 #74	9.0 #93	13.7 #90	0.0 #1	8.3 #99	8.3 #39

TEM scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	4.7 #80	8.0 #77	12.7 #92	5.3 #85	6.0 #76	11.3 #87
MIA allowed	3.3 #45	3.3 #17	6.7 #21	3.0 #33	4.7 #44	7.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.