Georgia Tech @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Miami · Conference game

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Georgia Tech

2-3 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Miami

4-0 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

MIA -20

✓ GT W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

GT 20–40 MIA

✗ MIA (92%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 20-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 20.5; 57.5 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs FSU 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	42–26	L	O53.5
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-21	35–27	L	U66.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	OSU vs MD 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-21.75	66–17	W	O71.5
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	TA&M vs APP 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-18	14–17	L	U54
Close	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-21	42–6	W	U70
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	35–16	P	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-1
MIA WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT –OOUO	3-1	75%	2-3
MIA –OUO	2-1	67%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-1 75%
MIAlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT−2.1 →0.0▲ 2.1#60

MIA+11.1 →+15.5▲ 4.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

MIA

#39

Offense

MIA better ▶

#117

Defense

MIA better ▶

#13

0.0 #70

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+1.0 #13

69 plays #50

Pace

◀ GT faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	GT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #48	12.5 #10	MIA
Yards / play	6.81 #22	4.63 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	−0.04 #20	Even
Success rate	45% #46	32% #5	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	43.8 #6	30.8 #104	MIA
Yards / play	8.24 #3	6.30 #116	MIA
PPA / play	+0.50 #4	+0.24 #124	MIA
Success rate	54% #9	47% #123	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.0 #49	11.6 #22	18.6 #31	6.0 #79	7.8 #51	13.8 #66
MIA allowed	2.5 #20	4.3 #19	6.8 #14	2.3 #14	3.5 #19	5.8 #9

MIA scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	9.5 #21	14.3 #8	23.8 #7	9.8 #21	10.3 #14	20.0 #9
GT allowed	5.2 #79	4.6 #24	9.8 #40	11.6 #132	9.4 #116	21.0 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.