Colorado @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

3-0 · Power #72

final

Final

Oregon

3-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -21.5

✓ ORE W

Total

70.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 25–45 ORE

✓ ORE (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -21.5

Total70.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close70.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -21.5

Total70.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 21.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 42–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 70.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.4 against an average line of 20.5; 69.4 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	35–27	L	U66.5
Close	OSU vs MD 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-21.75	66–17	W	O71.5
Close	OSU vs MSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-19.5	56–7	W	U70.5
Loose	OU vs NEB 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-22.5	23–16	L	U62.5
Loose	UCF vs TLSA 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-20.5	26–34	L	U70
Loose	OSU vs IU 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21	42–35	L	O67.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-19	59–31	W	O65
Loose	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Loose	ALA vs TENN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.5	52–24	W	O68
Loose	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	37–36	L	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
ORE WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO –UO	1-1	50%	3-0
ORE OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLOlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
ORElast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+3.1 →+5.4▲ 2.3#37

ORE+8.3 →+15.0▲ 6.7#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

COLO

Longer bar = better

ORE

#37

Offense

ORE better ▶

#97

Defense

ORE better ▶

#37

+2.0 #5

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #7

77 plays #10

Pace

◀ COLO faster

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #15	15.7 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #43	4.51 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #38	−0.07 #28	Even
Success rate	45% #51	37% #52	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	58.0 #2	30.3 #106	ORE
Yards / play	8.35 #4	6.03 #111	ORE
PPA / play	+0.52 #5	+0.05 #67	ORE
Success rate	54% #10	45% #102	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0 #46	7.7 #88	14.7 #70	8.0 #40	13.7 #6	21.7 #9
ORE allowed	4.7 #74	3.0 #14	7.7 #35	4.7 #59	3.3 #24	8.0 #36

ORE scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	20.3 #1	13.7 #18	34.0 #2	10.3 #18	13.7 #6	24.0 #4
COLO allowed	4.7 #74	7.0 #72	11.7 #77	7.0 #94	9.3 #107	16.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.