Oregon @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F9 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

4-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

1-3 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

ORE -27

✓ ORE W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 44–17 STAN

✓ ORE (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -27

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -27

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -27

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 27-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 42–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 26.8; 61.2 points a game (usually 56.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU @ TLSA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-28	66–17	W	O58.75
Very close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Close	CLEM @ GT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-26.5	73–7	W	O64.5
Close	OSU @ MSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-27	49–20	W	O64.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Loose	OSU @ MD 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-26.25	43–30	L	O62.5
Loose	UGA @ SC 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-25.5	48–7	W	U56
Loose	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Loose	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	4-0
STAN WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0
STAN OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORElast 4	4-0 100%	4-0 100%	1-3 25%
STANlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+8.3 →+19.6▲ 11.3#2

STAN+2.6 →−8.0▼ 10.6#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ORE

Longer bar = better

STAN

Offense

◀ ORE better

#80

#16

Defense

◀ ORE better

#123

+1.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−0.8 #109

71 plays #32

Pace

◀ ORE faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #2	32.8 #116	ORE
Yards / play	8.04 #5	6.39 #122	ORE
PPA / play	+0.52 #3	+0.28 #126	ORE
Success rate	56% #3	49% #127	ORE

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	STAN off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #98	13.3 #16	ORE
Yards / play	5.60 #79	4.26 #10	ORE
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	−0.09 #12	ORE
Success rate	41% #78	35% #24	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	18.5 #1	15.8 #4	34.3 #1	9.5 #28	10.3 #15	19.8 #15
STAN allowed	6.0 #87	14.8 #131	20.8 #127	2.5 #18	9.5 #116	12.0 #65

STAN scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.3 #94	7.8 #83	12.0 #92	4.0 #109	6.5 #77	10.5 #105
ORE allowed	3.5 #47	2.3 #3	5.8 #10	3.5 #38	4.0 #27	7.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.