Louisville @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Fri, Sep 29, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisville

4-0 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

NC State

3-1 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

LOU -3.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 30–27 NCSU

✓ LOU (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -3.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -3.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 13–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.3; 58.8 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–31	L	U59
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	35–24	W	U60
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Very close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	25–39	L	O56.5
Very close	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	FSU @ LOU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O57
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–14	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LWLW	2-2	50%	—	2-2
NCSU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU –OUO	2-1	67%	4-0
NCSU –OUU	1-2	33%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%
NCSUlast 4	3-1 75%	0-4 0%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+6.7▲ 4.6#31

NCSU+5.0 →+1.8▼ 3.2#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LOU

Longer bar = better

NCSU

Offense

◀ LOU better

#69

#60

Defense

Even

#71

+0.5 #38

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

+0.3 #52

67 plays #68

Pace

NCSU faster ▶

74 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #9	21.8 #55	LOU
Yards / play	8.12 #4	5.67 #82	LOU
PPA / play	+0.53 #3	+0.11 #86	LOU
Success rate	55% #7	39% #59	LOU

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #67	19.0 #40	LOU
Yards / play	5.19 #103	5.60 #74	LOU
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.09 #72	Even
Success rate	47% #39	38% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.5 #32	17.5 #3	26.0 #7	9.5 #24	7.5 #58	17.0 #38
NCSU allowed	2.5 #26	5.3 #48	7.8 #32	6.8 #93	7.3 #86	14.0 #97

NCSU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	7.0 #51	8.5 #70	15.5 #63	9.5 #24	4.3 #106	13.8 #62
LOU allowed	0.0 #1	10.5 #112	10.5 #62	5.3 #77	3.3 #15	8.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.