Notre Dame @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Duke

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

4-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Duke

4-0 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

ND -5.5

✓ ND W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 28–24 DUKE

✓ ND (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -5.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 5.5-point road favorite at DUKE, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 21–14; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 4.1; 58 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ ND 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	40–47	L	O50.5
Very close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Close	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Close	OSU @ ND 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	17–14	P	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWWLP	3-1-1	75%	1-0	3-1
DUKE WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; DUKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND –OOOU	3-1	75%	4-1
DUKE –POO	2-0-1	100%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 5	4-1 80%	3-1-1 75%	3-1 75%
DUKElast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-0-1 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+9.1 →+16.2▲ 7.1#12

DUKE+4.1 →+12.4▲ 8.3#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

DUKE

Offense

Even

#21

#20

Defense

Even

#22

+0.6 #35

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+1.3 #15

62 plays #113

Pace

Even

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #17	8.8 #5	Even
Yards / play	7.70 #7	4.09 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #5	−0.16 #3	Even
Success rate	54% #7	41% #77	ND

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #27	12.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #26	4.20 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #21	+0.01 #48	DUKE
Success rate	54% #8	33% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ND scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.6 #41	12.6 #18	20.2 #23	9.0 #30	10.4 #12	19.4 #18
DUKE allowed	1.8 #11	3.5 #19	5.3 #6	0.0 #1	3.5 #20	3.5 #4

DUKE scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	6.0 #62	11.8 #26	17.8 #49	12.3 #5	7.3 #63	19.5 #16
ND allowed	2.0 #14	3.4 #11	5.4 #7	4.0 #45	3.4 #14	7.4 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.