Oregon State @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Washington State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

3-0 · Power #20

final

Final

Washington State

3-0 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -3

✓ WSU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 29–28 WSU

✗ ORST (54%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 3-point road favorite at WSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 57.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 3.6; 63.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	41–34	W	O56
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Close	BYU @ BSU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	51–17	W	O62.5
Close	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	BYU @ HOU 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	43–26	W	O62.5
Close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	33–48	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
WSU WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; WSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST –OU	1-1	50%	3-0
WSU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORSTlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
WSUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORST 45–56 WSU (3 tied) WSU leads · 104 games since 1916 · ORST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+8.4▼ 2.8#26

WSU+5.5 →+8.8▲ 3.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ORST

Longer bar = better

WSU

#13

Offense

Even

#22

#19

Defense

◀ ORST better

#50

+0.7 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #42

63 plays #105

Pace

WSU faster ▶

76 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #16	22.3 #68	ORST
Yards / play	7.44 #14	5.62 #85	ORST
PPA / play	+0.42 #11	−0.13 #11	Even
Success rate	54% #12	35% #35	ORST

When WSU has the ball

Even matchup

	WSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	48.3 #6	11.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #23	4.13 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #24	−0.18 #4	Even
Success rate	49% #33	37% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.0 #39	15.7 #12	23.7 #15	8.0 #40	9.3 #30	17.3 #31
WSU allowed	2.0 #17	4.3 #35	6.3 #21	6.7 #89	9.3 #111	16.0 #112

WSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	12.0 #8	16.0 #9	28.0 #5	8.7 #36	11.7 #9	20.3 #13
ORST allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #6	2.0 #1	0.0 #1	9.0 #105	9.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.