UCLA @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F1 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

3-0 · Power #26

final

Final

Utah

3-0 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -3.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 22–25 UTAH

✓ UTAH (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -3.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTAH -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -3.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 3.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 14–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 50.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.6; 39.8 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	UTAH vs ASU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O51.25
Close	ILL vs UVA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–3	W	U55
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	UAB vs LIB 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–36	L	U49
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	LSU vs AUB 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–24	L	U56
Close	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2	27–21	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
UTAH WPL	1-1-1	50%	1-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA –UO	1-1	50%	3-0
UTAH –UU	0-2	0%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
UTAHlast 3	3-0 100%	1-1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+8.8▲ 6.0#24

UTAH+1.7 →+5.7▲ 4.0#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UCLA

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#14

Offense

◀ UCLA better

#85

#17

Defense

Even

#21

+0.7 #45

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+1.3 #15

61 plays #120

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #22	10.3 #9	Even
Yards / play	8.59 #3	4.95 #49	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.46 #9	−0.10 #18	Even
Success rate	52% #23	31% #9	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	UTAH off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #90	10.0 #7	UCLA
Yards / play	5.38 #94	3.87 #5	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	−0.10 #19	UCLA
Success rate	41% #80	35% #38	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	16.3 #4	12.7 #26	29.0 #4	7.0 #53	4.3 #103	11.3 #87
UTAH allowed	1.0 #9	5.7 #50	6.7 #21	1.0 #12	2.7 #20	3.7 #8

UTAH scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.7 #80	7.7 #88	12.3 #97	8.0 #40	4.7 #95	12.7 #70
UCLA allowed	2.3 #20	3.0 #14	5.3 #9	2.3 #20	2.3 #9	4.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.