Air Force @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Fri, Sep 22, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

3-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

San José State

1-3 · Power #60

final

Closing spread

AFA -6.5

✓ AFA W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 27–20 SJSU

✓ AFA (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -6.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -6.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 6.5-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 45–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 45, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 6.9; 48 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	ARMY @ UTSA 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	28–16	W	U47
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Close	PITT @ BC 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	30–31	L	O42.5
Close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-6	35–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLW	1-2	33%	—	1-2
SJSU WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; SJSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
SJSU O–OU	2-1	67%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFAlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
SJSUlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AFA 6–3 SJSU AFA leads · 9 games since 1996 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA+5.5 →+6.2▲ 0.7#33

SJSU−9.4 →−6.3▲ 3.1#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AFA

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#39

Offense

◀ AFA better

#90

Defense

◀ AFA better

#111

+0.7 #37

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #24

63 plays #103

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #60	30.5 #108	AFA
Yards / play	6.11 #52	5.90 #104	AFA
PPA / play	+0.30 #30	+0.30 #127	AFA
Success rate	54% #13	45% #103	AFA

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	SJSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #67	10.3 #10	AFA
Yards / play	5.33 #96	3.47 #1	AFA
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	−0.11 #16	AFA
Success rate	39% #106	31% #7	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	12.0 #11	9.0 #63	21.0 #28	4.7 #93	5.7 #79	10.3 #98
SJSU allowed	3.5 #62	9.5 #101	13.0 #88	10.5 #125	7.0 #78	17.5 #119

SJSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.3 #95	12.0 #37	16.3 #54	8.8 #34	5.3 #88	14.0 #60
AFA allowed	0.0 #1	2.3 #12	2.3 #4	3.3 #40	4.7 #43	8.0 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.