Utah State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Fri, Sep 15, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-1 · Power #100

final

Final

Air Force

2-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -9

✓ AFA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 19–30 AFA

✓ AFA (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -9

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -9

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 9-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 39–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 45.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 9.9; 53.7 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AFA vs USU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-9	45–49	L	O54
Loose	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-10	41–14	W	O53
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Loose	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Loose	CIN vs ARMY 2020 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-12.5	24–10	W	U44.5
Loose	ILL vs TOL 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-9	30–28	L	O45.5
Loose	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Loose	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Loose	CAL vs UNLV 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-12.5	20–14	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
AFA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
AFA UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 23 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USUlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
AFAlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−5.3 →−6.3▼ 1.0#104

AFA+5.5 →+8.4▲ 2.9#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#34

Offense

◀ USU better

#58

#48

Defense

AFA better ▶

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

◀ USU better

0.0 #71

71 plays #42

Pace

◀ USU faster

61 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	USU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #17	5.0 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #36	2.51 #1	AFA
PPA / play	+0.24 #44	−0.21 #7	AFA
Success rate	49% #37	22% #3	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #79	26.0 #89	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #63	4.66 #38	USU
PPA / play	+0.21 #49	−0.09 #29	Even
Success rate	48% #40	35% #37	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 FBS teams

USU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.5	23.5	27.0	8.5	10.5	19.0
AFA allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	3.5	5.0

AFA scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
USU allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	3.5	7.0	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.