Kansas @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Nevada

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

2-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

0-2 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

KU -28.5

✓ NEV W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 42–16 NEV

✓ KU (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -28.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -28.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -28.5

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like KU as a 28.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 55 points stayed under 58, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 60%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21 against an average line of 27.9; 58.2 points a game (usually 58.9). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD @ CLT 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-28	56–21	W	O65
Loose	FLA @ USF 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-29	42–20	L	O57
Loose	UCLA @ COLO 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-22	45–17	W	O57
Loose	WYO @ CONN 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31.5	24–22	L	U53.5
Loose	APP @ ULM 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & rest	-29	31–13	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
NEV LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OU	1-1	50%	2-0
NEV –U	0-1	0%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 47% of games with totals 54–62 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
NEVlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+2.0 →+3.1▲ 1.1#44

NEV−18.4 →−13.1▲ 5.3#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

NEV

#17

Offense

◀ KU better

#121

#78

Defense

◀ KU better

#134

0.0 #64

Turnovers

◀ KU better

−0.3 #95

69 plays #52

Pace

◀ KU faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #35	43.3 #131	KU
Yards / play	7.29 #15	8.73 #136	KU
PPA / play	+0.41 #12	+0.51 #136	KU
Success rate	57% #5	54% #134	KU

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	NEV off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #131	21.3 #59	KU
Yards / play	4.58 #127	5.04 #55	KU
PPA / play	+0.02 #111	+0.13 #97	Even
Success rate	37% #116	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 125 FBS teams

KU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	8.0	10.5	18.5
NEV allowed	17.5	8.5	26.0	8.5	15.0	23.5

NEV scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	5.0	1.5	6.5	0.0	3.5	3.5
KU allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	4.0	7.5	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.