Illinois @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Fri, Sep 8, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas

Weather at kickoff82°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

1-0 · Power #67

final

Final

Kansas

1-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -3.5

✓ KU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 27–31 KU

✓ KU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 3.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 34–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 3.4; 48 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs MIZ 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	41–34	W	O58
Very close	WAKE vs FSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	35–14	W	U62.5
Very close	BSU vs OKST 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–21	L	U58
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	14–40	L	U61
Close	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–17	W	P55
Close	ORST vs WASH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	27–24	W	U57.5
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL L	0-1	0%	—	—
KU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL –	0-0	—	1-0
KU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILLlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-0 —
KUlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ILL

Longer bar = better

#50

Offense

KU better ▶

#18

#94

Defense

KU better ▶

#70

0.0 #74

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+1.0 #31

61 plays #107

Pace

KU faster ▶

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #71	17.0 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.13 #59	4.52 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #45	+0.19 #101	ILL
Success rate	56% #23	37% #64	ILL

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #18	28.0 #93	KU
Yards / play	7.89 #18	5.27 #78	KU
PPA / play	+0.49 #19	+0.19 #102	KU
Success rate	58% #18	45% #102	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.