Troy @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas State

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Troy

1-0 · Power #29

final

Final

Kansas State

1-0 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -15

✓ KSU W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 20–33 KSU

✓ KSU (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -15

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -15

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -15

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like KSU as a 15-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 42–13; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 55 points went over 50, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

0 of 20%

Below normal · usually 82%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 7 against an average line of 13.5; 51 points a game (usually 56.1). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KSU vs TULN 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-13.5	10–17	L	U49
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–41	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY L	0-1	0%	—	—
KSU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY O	1-0	100%	1-0
KSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%
KSUlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TROY

Longer bar = better

KSU

#25

Offense

Even

#14

#40

Defense

KSU better ▶

#18

−3.0 #131

Turnovers

KSU better ▶

−1.0 #109

64 plays #88

Pace

KSU faster ▶

71 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #20	0.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	8.44 #9	3.60 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #49	−0.19 #25	KSU
Success rate	56% #20	29% #21	Even

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #25	30.0 #95	KSU
Yards / play	8.28 #12	4.07 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.57 #11	−0.32 #10	Even
Success rate	61% #9	30% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.