Marshall @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at East Carolina

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

1-0 · Power #96

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

0-1 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

MRSH -3

✓ MRSH W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 27–23 ECU

✓ MRSH (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMRSH -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like MRSH as a 3-point road favorite at ECU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 44 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 8.

Favorite won

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 888%

Above normal · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 4.1; 59 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SJSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & rest	-6	27–20	W	O44
Loose	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Loose	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Loose	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Loose	MRSH @ NAVY 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	49–7	W	O46.5
Loose	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Loose	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Loose	TLSA @ WYO 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	37–40	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
ECU W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; ECU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH U	0-1	0%	1-0
ECU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSHlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
ECUlast 1	0-1 0%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

MRSH

Longer bar = better

ECU

#62

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#119

#45

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#114

−1.0 #108

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #96

61 plays #106

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

55 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #103	30.0 #98	Even
Yards / play	6.77 #36	6.48 #112	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.59 #131	MRSH
Success rate	53% #28	50% #116	MRSH

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	ECU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	3.0 #133	17.0 #58	MRSH
Yards / play	4.27 #120	4.05 #29	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.03 #109	−0.03 #54	MRSH
Success rate	34% #115	33% #40	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.