App State @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 5:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

App State

1-0 · Power #61

final

Final

North Carolina

1-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -18

✓ APP W

Total

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 20–35 UNC

✓ UNC (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -18

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP L	0-1	0%	—	—
UNC W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP O	1-0	100%	1-0
UNC U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in OT. Of 20 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%
UNClast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

APP

Longer bar = better

UNC

#39

Offense

◀ APP better

#94

#81

Defense

Even

#86

+3.0 #7

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−2.0 #123

67 plays #67

Pace

UNC faster ▶

71 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #24	17.0 #63	APP
Yards / play	5.88 #63	5.01 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #30	+0.22 #103	APP
Success rate	51% #39	48% #111	APP

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #68	24.0 #85	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #58	4.80 #64	Even
PPA / play	−0.21 #125	+0.05 #75	APP
Success rate	31% #126	45% #101	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.