Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
UNC -2.5
✓ UNC W
Total
63.5
▼ Under · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
UNC 28–26 SC
✓ UNC (56%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUNC -2.5
Total63.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseUNC -2.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close63.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUNC -2.5
Total63.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UNC as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against SC, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: UNC won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 63.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 2.9; 55.9 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  HOU vs  TTU2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 21–38 | L | U63 |
| Very close |  NEV vs  SJSU2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 20–30 | L | U61.5 |
| Very close |  DUKE vs  UCF2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.25 | 30–13 | W | U62.75 |
| Close |  USA vs  WKU2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.75 | 23–44 | L | O58 |
| Close |  SMU vs  BYU2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 23–24 | L | U65 |
| Close |  UTSA vs  TROY2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-3 | 12–18 | L | U56.5 |
| Close |  UL vs  MRSH2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-4 | 36–21 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |  TULN vs NEV2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.25 | 27–38 | L | O56.5 |
| Close | WKU vs  APP2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-1 | 59–38 | W | O67.75 |
| Close |  WAKE vs  MIZ2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-2.75 | 27–17 | W | U58.75 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
North Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
71° · 4 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNC1st game
SC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
HAW @ 
VAN
NCSU @ 
CONN
FLA @ 
UTAH
M-OH @ 
MIA
LOU vs 
GT
UVA vs 
TENN
BALL @ 
UK
NIU @ 
BC
MASS @ 
AUB
UNM @ 
TA&M