Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Illinois
Closing spread
ILL -10
✓ TOL W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
TOL 23–31 ILL
✓ ILL (73%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseILL -10
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseILL -10
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseILL -10
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ILL as a 10-point home favorite against TOL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: ILL won 30–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Below normal · usually 74%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 9.7; 53.6 points a game (usually 55.2).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BC vs  RUTG2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-9 | 21–22 | L | U47 |
| Very close |  JMU vs  MRSH2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-9.5 | 12–26 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |  BOIS vs  FRES2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-10.5 | 40–20 | W | O45 |
| Very close |  DUKE vs  CLT2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-10.75 | 53–19 | W | O55 |
| Very close |  NU vs DUKE2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-10 | 23–31 | L | U56 |
| Very close |  STAN vs  COLO2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-9.5 | 32–35 | L | O55 |
| Very close |  UVA vs ILL2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-10.5 | 42–14 | W | U57 |
| Very close |  SYR vs UVA2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread |
-9.5 | 22–20 | L | U53.75 |
| Very close |  ARMY vs  GAST2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-8.5 | 14–31 | L | U54 |
| Very close | BOIS vs  BYU2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread |
-9.5 | 28–31 | L | O54.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Toledo have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ILL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
81° · 5 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TOL1st game
ILL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
OHIO @ 
SDSU
KENT @ 
UCF
NEB @ 
MINN
CMU @ 
MSU
M-OH @ 
MIA
ECU @ 
MICH
USU @ 
IOWA
BALL @ 
UK
BGSU @ 
LIB
PUR