Fri, Sep 1, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan State
Closing spread
MSU -15
✓ MSU W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
CMU 21–33 MSU
✓ MSU (81%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseMSU -15
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseMSU -15
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseMSU -15
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MSU as a 15-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: MSU won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 45%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 49%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 24.5 against an average line of 13.8; 52.1 points a game (usually 56.2).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  JMU vs  CCU2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
| Close |  NEB vs  BUFF2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-13.5 | 28–3 | W | U54.5 |
| Close |  NW vs  MD2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-13 | 43–3 | W | U52.5 |
| Close |  LOU vs  WKU2020 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-13 | 35–21 | W | O55 |
| Close |  ECU vs  ODU2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-13 | 39–21 | W | O49.75 |
| Close |  ISU vs  UL2020 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-13 | 14–31 | L | U56.5 |
| Close |  AFA vs  COLO2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close |  VT vs  BC2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-13 | 40–14 | W | U61.75 |
| Close |  SC vs  GAST2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-12.5 | 35–14 | W | U54.75 |
| Close |  RUTG vs  TEM2021 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-14 | 61–14 | W | O52 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Central Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 5 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CMU1st game
MSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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