East Carolina @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at App State

Weather at kickoff71°F6 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

East Carolina

0-2 · Power #110

final

Final

App State

1-1 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -7.5

✓ APP W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 23–30 APP

✓ APP (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 7.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 43–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 7.6; 44.8 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	38–28	W	O47
Close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	WYO vs BALL 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–12	W	O53
Close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-5	27–20	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
APP LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UO	1-1	50%	0-2
APP OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECUlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
APPlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−10.0 →−10.5▼ 0.5#124

APP−1.3 →−6.2▼ 4.9#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ECU

Longer bar = better

APP

#131

Offense

APP better ▶

#45

#108

Defense

Even

#98

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

APP better ▶

+1.0 #27

61 plays #117

Pace

APP faster ▶

76 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	ECU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #130	30.7 #110	Even
Yards / play	4.15 #132	5.46 #78	APP
PPA / play	−0.13 #132	+0.13 #95	APP
Success rate	33% #128	45% #108	Even

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #21	34.7 #121	APP
Yards / play	6.00 #65	6.28 #120	APP
PPA / play	+0.25 #39	+0.24 #116	APP
Success rate	45% #53	39% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	0.0	5.0	5.0	1.5	1.5	3.0
APP allowed	0.0	10.0	10.0	12.0	3.5	15.5

APP scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	12.0	12.0	24.0
ECU allowed	3.5	13.0	16.5	3.5	10.5	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.