Georgia State @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Charlotte

Weather at kickoff80°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-0 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

1-1 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

GAST -5

✓ GAST W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 28–23 CLT

✓ GAST (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGAST -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 41–25; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 52, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 4.3; 46.2 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–24	L	U54
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	TROY @ GASO 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	13–20	L	U52
Very close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–13	W	U50
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	16–10	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
CLT LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OU	1-1	50%	2-0
CLT UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
CLTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−2.6▲ 1.0#82

CLT−0.6 →−8.5▼ 7.9#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

GAST

Longer bar = better

CLT

#44

Offense

◀ GAST better

#98

#74

Defense

Even

#65

+2.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.5 #97

65 plays #83

Pace

◀ GAST faster

60 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #34	20.5 #59	GAST
Yards / play	6.34 #47	5.58 #87	GAST
PPA / play	+0.30 #34	−0.01 #48	Even
Success rate	44% #62	39% #65	Even

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: GAST defense

	CLT off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #108	24.5 #75	GAST
Yards / play	5.49 #86	5.83 #101	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #117	+0.07 #79	GAST
Success rate	42% #81	36% #40	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 77 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	10.5	10.5	21.0	10.5	7.0	17.5
CLT allowed	0.0	6.0	6.0	4.0	10.5	14.5

CLT scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	0.0	6.5	6.5
GAST allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	10.5	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.