UConn @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Georgia State

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UConn

0-1 · Power #125

final

Final

Georgia State

1-0 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

GAST -3

✓ GAST W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 25–29 GAST

✓ GAST (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -3

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGAST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGAST -3

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 3-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 35–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 3; 56.4 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-1	34–31	W	O53
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	CLT vs MTSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	42–39	W	O55.5
Close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Close	AFA vs FAU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–7	W	U54
Close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	29–30	L	O58.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
GAST L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN –	0-0	—	0-1
GAST O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONNlast 1	0-1 0%	1-0 100%	0-0 —
GASTlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

CONN

Longer bar = better

GAST

#93

Offense

GAST better ▶

#27

#93

Defense

◀ CONN better

#109

−1.0 #89

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+2.0 #11

53 plays #124

Pace

Even

58 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #116	35.0 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #94	6.93 #117	CONN
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	+0.26 #113	CONN
Success rate	42% #77	43% #98	CONN

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #28	24.0 #76	GAST
Yards / play	7.31 #23	5.06 #68	GAST
PPA / play	+0.42 #22	+0.15 #97	GAST
Success rate	51% #35	60% #131	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.