Louisiana @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

1-0 · Power #87

final

Final

Old Dominion

0-1 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -6.5

✓ ODU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 28–22 ODU

✗ UL (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -6.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -6.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 6.5-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 51, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 7.2; 42.7 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5	23–26	L	U53
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	IU @ MSU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	24–0	W	U52.5
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	3–10	L	U47
Close	USC @ COLO 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-9	37–14	W	P51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
ODU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL U	0-1	0%	1-0
ODU O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 47–55, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
ODUlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Longer bar = better

ODU

#69

Offense

◀ UL better

#105

#17

Defense

◀ UL better

#80

−2.0 #128

Turnovers

Even

−3.0 #134

66 plays #74

Pace

Even

68 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #45	36.0 #111	UL
Yards / play	6.50 #44	5.04 #67	UL
PPA / play	−0.08 #121	+0.07 #76	ODU
Success rate	43% #65	38% #65	Even

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	ODU off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #113	13.0 #40	UL
Yards / play	4.34 #118	2.75 #3	UL
PPA / play	−0.15 #127	−0.20 #21	UL
Success rate	44% #62	16% #3	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.