Louisiana @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UAB

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

1-1 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

UAB

1-1 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

UAB -2

✓ UL W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 27–29 UAB

✗ UAB (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUAB -2

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUAB -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUAB -2

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UAB as a 2-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 41–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 2.6; 50.9 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Very close	BSU vs OKST 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	20–21	L	U58
Very close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75
Very close	FAU vs OHIO 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–17	L	U61.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	31–34	L	O61.5
Very close	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	38–17	W	P55
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–40	L	U61
Close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	21–52	L	O57.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—
UAB WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; UAB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UO	1-1	50%	1-1
UAB UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
UABlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UL 5–4 UAB UL leads · 9 games since 1995 · UL has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL+1.8 →0.0▼ 1.8#69

UAB+0.5 →−0.8▼ 1.3#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

UAB

#49

Offense

UAB better ▶

#25

#55

Defense

◀ UL better

#91

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #109

71 plays #36

Pace

Even

72 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #47	27.5 #96	UL
Yards / play	6.22 #49	5.12 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.11 #85	Even
Success rate	51% #28	48% #120	UL

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #45	25.5 #90	UAB
Yards / play	6.54 #33	4.75 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #19	0.00 #48	UAB
Success rate	60% #2	36% #44	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

UL scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	8.5	10.5	19.0	3.5	12.0	15.5
UAB allowed	8.5	7.0	15.5	3.5	8.5	12.0

UAB scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	3.5	18.0	21.5	7.0	6.5	13.5
UL allowed	5.0	6.5	11.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.