South Alabama @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Oklahoma State

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

2-0 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

OKST -7

✓ USA W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 23–31 OKST

✗ OKST (71%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 7-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 33–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 7.3; 47.3 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Very close	WASH vs CAL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	SDSU vs USU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	13–46	L	O49.5
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	42–40	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
OKST LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA –U	0-1	0%	1-1
OKST UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 57% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
OKSTlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−6.2 →−5.5▲ 0.7#98

OKST−1.5 →+1.5▲ 3.0#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USA

Longer bar = better

OKST

#56

Offense

◀ USA better

#77

#105

Defense

OKST better ▶

#68

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.5 #49

62 plays #108

Pace

OKST faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #90	14.0 #28	OKST
Yards / play	6.24 #47	5.22 #70	USA
PPA / play	+0.26 #38	+0.10 #83	USA
Success rate	46% #50	43% #91	USA

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #83	27.0 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #99	7.37 #132	OKST
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	+0.16 #105	OKST
Success rate	44% #60	42% #89	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

USA scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	0.0	8.5	8.5	10.5	7.0	17.5
OKST allowed	3.5	4.0	7.5	3.5	3.0	6.5

OKST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.5	8.0	11.5	3.5	12.0	15.5
USA allowed	5.0	10.5	15.5	3.5	8.0	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.