Oklahoma State @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Arizona State

Weather at kickoff105°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

1-0 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

1-0 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

OKST -2.5

✓ OKST W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 27–26 ASU

✓ OKST (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 2.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 27–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.3; 51 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TULN @ USM 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	66–24	W	O54.5
Close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Close	WMU @ TOL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	15–34	L	U54.5
Loose	BC @ GT 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.75	41–30	W	O55
Loose	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Loose	UTSA @ UAB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	44–38	W	O53.25
Loose	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Loose	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-1	3–17	L	U51
Loose	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Loose	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
ASU L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: OKST away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST U	0-1	0%	1-0
ASU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 61% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKSTlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
ASUlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

OKST

Longer bar = better

ASU

#73

Offense

Even

#84

#91

Defense

ASU better ▶

#41

0.0 #81

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

0.0 #64

79 plays #11

Pace

◀ OKST faster

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	OKST off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #84	21.0 #63	ASU
Yards / play	5.73 #79	4.61 #39	ASU
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	+0.01 #55	Even
Success rate	44% #65	26% #7	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	13.0 #24	OKST
Yards / play	5.71 #81	6.02 #105	ASU
PPA / play	+0.16 #66	+0.31 #121	ASU
Success rate	41% #89	48% #113	ASU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.