Iowa @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Iowa State

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

1-0 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

1-0 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

IOWA -3.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 25–21 ISU

✓ IOWA (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close35

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like IOWA as a 3.5-point road favorite at ISU, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 33 points stayed under 35, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 7.8; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IOWA @ RUTG 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–10	W	O34.5
Loose	UTAH @ SDSU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8	31–33	L	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
ISU W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; ISU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA U	0-1	0%	1-0
ISU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWAlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
ISUlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA

Longer bar = better

ISU

#106

Offense

ISU better ▶

#80

#54

Defense

ISU better ▶

#25

+1.0 #35

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+2.0 #15

69 plays #56

Pace

◀ IOWA faster

45 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	IOWA off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #83	9.0 #28	ISU
Yards / play	4.12 #121	3.88 #29	ISU
PPA / play	+0.01 #99	−0.37 #7	ISU
Success rate	32% #122	32% #35	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	ISU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #70	14.0 #43	IOWA
Yards / play	5.56 #79	4.57 #55	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.27 #44	−0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	30% #127	38% #66	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.