Western Michigan @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Iowa

Weather at kickoff63°F10 mphgusts 30Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Michigan

1-1 · Power #120

final

Final

Iowa

2-0 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -28.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 9–35 IOWA

✓ IOWA (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -28.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -28.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -28.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 28.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IOWA won 41–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 25.7; 55.8 points a game (usually 58.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS vs CSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-25	49–10	W	O42.5
Close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Close	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-26	44–21	L	O46.5
Loose	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Loose	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Loose	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Loose	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Loose	UAB vs RICE 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.75	24–30	L	O44.5
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
IOWA LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
IOWA UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 17 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
IOWAlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−9.3▼ 6.3#119

IOWA+3.8 →+2.3▼ 1.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WMU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#82

Offense

◀ WMU better

#117

#101

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#34

−1.0 #106

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+0.5 #46

83 plays #4

Pace

◀ WMU faster

60 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WMU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #112	13.5 #24	IOWA
Yards / play	4.98 #109	4.21 #25	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.21 #48	−0.09 #28	Even
Success rate	45% #59	38% #58	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #106	32.5 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.33 #128	6.37 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.35 #127	Even
Success rate	32% #126	37% #47	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.0	7.0	14.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
IOWA allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	9.0	10.5

IOWA scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.5	8.5	17.0	1.5	3.5	5.0
WMU allowed	8.5	19.0	27.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.