Iowa @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F12 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa

3-0 · Power #54

final

Final

Penn State

3-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -14

✓ PSU W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 14–27 PSU

✓ PSU (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -14

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -14

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 14-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 13.7; 45.1 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	UGA vs TENN 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	44–21	W	O43
Close	WISC vs IU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	6–14	L	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-11	7–24	L	U42.5
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Loose	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Loose	MIAMI vs PITT 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12	31–19	P	O47
Loose	ASU vs COLO 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-14	35–13	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
PSU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
PSU –OU	1-1	50%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWAlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
PSUlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+3.8 →+5.2▲ 1.4#38

PSU+6.6 →+12.4▲ 5.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IOWA

Longer bar = better

PSU

#101

Offense

PSU better ▶

#30

#25

Defense

Even

#34

0.0 #65

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+2.3 #3

62 plays #115

Pace

PSU faster ▶

78 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	IOWA off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #75	11.7 #13	PSU
Yards / play	4.90 #111	4.41 #25	PSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #103	0.00 #53	PSU
Success rate	37% #115	36% #43	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	43.7 #14	12.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #62	4.27 #19	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.32 #26	−0.06 #31	Even
Success rate	53% #18	35% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	5.7 #72	10.3 #44	16.0 #55	6.7 #63	5.7 #84	12.3 #72
PSU allowed	2.3 #19	4.7 #34	7.0 #26	0.0 #1	4.7 #44	4.7 #11

PSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	9.0 #26	12.7 #25	21.7 #19	11.7 #10	10.3 #16	22.0 #4
IOWA allowed	2.3 #19	3.0 #16	5.3 #12	1.0 #11	6.0 #67	7.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.