Michigan State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

2-2 · Power #98

final

Final

Iowa

3-1 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -10

Push

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 13–23 IOWA

✓ IOWA (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -10

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -10

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 10-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 26–16; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 36.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 9.4; 41.9 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs NU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	33–13	W	O37.5
Very close	IOWA vs NEB 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	17–24	L	O38
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	27–21	L	O41
Very close	IOWA vs ILL 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-12	33–23	L	O38.25
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	ARMY vs NAVY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total	-7.5	15–0	W	U35.5
Close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7	10–6	L	U38
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	40–20	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WWLL	2-2	50%	—	0-2
IOWA LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU –OUU	1-2	33%	2-2
IOWA UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%
IOWAlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+7.2 →−3.6▼ 10.8#79

IOWA+3.8 →+2.8▼ 1.0#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MSU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#85

Offense

◀ MSU better

#123

#77

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#30

−1.0 #116

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #119

66 plays #84

Pace

◀ MSU faster

55 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #96	17.0 #27	IOWA
Yards / play	5.76 #67	4.21 #8	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.01 #45	IOWA
Success rate	43% #59	37% #41	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	IOWA off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #109	23.3 #66	MSU
Yards / play	4.50 #129	5.74 #89	MSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #122	+0.11 #87	MSU
Success rate	35% #132	40% #66	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	1.8 #129	5.8 #113	7.5 #126	8.5 #36	7.0 #67	15.5 #44
IOWA allowed	2.5 #22	4.0 #21	6.5 #15	4.3 #50	6.3 #71	10.5 #55

IOWA scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	4.3 #94	7.8 #83	12.0 #94	5.0 #91	4.3 #111	9.3 #112
MSU allowed	5.3 #82	10.5 #113	15.8 #103	1.5 #10	6.0 #63	7.5 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.