Purdue @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Iowa · Conference game

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Purdue

2-3 · Power #66

final

Final

Iowa

4-1 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -3.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

PUR 19–23 IOWA

✓ IOWA (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 3.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 20–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 3.3; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–27	W	O36
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	16–40	L	O53
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	24–41	L	O53.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–22	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-0	0-2
IOWA LWWLP	2-2-1	50%	1-1-1	2-1-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR –UUOO	2-2	50%	2-3
IOWA UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PURlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%
IOWAlast 5	4-1 80%	2-2-1 50%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−4.2 →+1.2▲ 5.4#54

IOWA+3.8 →+2.8▼ 1.0#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PUR

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#75

Offense

◀ PUR better

#125

#81

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#19

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #98

72 plays #25

Pace

◀ PUR faster

55 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	PUR off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #75	16.8 #21	IOWA
Yards / play	5.57 #85	4.29 #8	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	−0.06 #20	IOWA
Success rate	44% #57	36% #28	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: PUR defense

	IOWA off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #103	29.6 #101	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #134	5.64 #77	PUR
PPA / play	−0.07 #130	+0.11 #83	PUR
Success rate	34% #133	40% #63	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	4.6 #91	8.2 #77	12.8 #89	9.8 #21	5.4 #95	15.2 #47
IOWA allowed	2.6 #19	4.4 #25	7.0 #19	4.8 #56	5.0 #48	9.8 #43

IOWA scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	4.0 #104	7.6 #87	11.6 #104	4.6 #102	6.0 #83	10.6 #105
PUR allowed	6.2 #95	11.6 #121	17.8 #113	2.8 #19	9.0 #115	11.8 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.