Michigan @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

5-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

3-2 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

MICH -20

✓ MICH W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

MICH 34–14 MINN

✓ MICH (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -20

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 20-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 52–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.1 against an average line of 20.5; 53.7 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ NEB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	45–7	W	O39.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	OSU @ IU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	54–7	W	O59
Close	UGA @ TENN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	41–17	W	O55.75
Close	WASH @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-20	31–24	L	U67
Close	ALA @ AUB 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	24–22	L	U57
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Close	USC @ COLO 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	48–41	L	O74.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLLPW	1-3-1	25%	1-0	1-3-1
MINN LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUUUO	1-4	20%	5-0
MINN –UUOO	2-2	50%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICHlast 5	5-0 100%	1-3-1 25%	1-4 20%
MINNlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+18.7▲ 10.3#6

MINN−0.1 →+0.6▲ 0.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MICH

Longer bar = better

MINN

#19

Offense

◀ MICH better

#83

Defense

◀ MICH better

#70

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.8 #20

60 plays #123

Pace

MINN faster ▶

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #39	21.6 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #26	5.89 #97	MICH
PPA / play	+0.44 #7	+0.08 #64	MICH
Success rate	56% #3	41% #73	MICH

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MINN off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	6.0 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.23 #100	4.75 #24	MICH
PPA / play	+0.11 #78	−0.19 #2	MICH
Success rate	44% #54	25% #1	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.4 #32	11.6 #21	20.0 #19	11.0 #7	3.4 #123	14.4 #56
MINN allowed	2.8 #24	7.4 #68	10.2 #45	2.6 #16	7.6 #95	10.2 #49

MINN scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.8 #123	9.4 #57	12.2 #95	5.4 #87	5.8 #89	11.2 #97
MICH allowed	1.4 #6	1.2 #1	2.6 #1	0.0 #1	3.4 #16	3.4 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.