Louisiana @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Minnesota

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

3-1 · Power #87

final

Final

Minnesota

2-2 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -9.5

✓ MINN W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 22–30 MINN

✓ MINN (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -9.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -9.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 9.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 35–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 8.5; 45.1 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Very close	TCU vs KSU 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.75	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Close	CLEM vs FSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Close	WASH vs CAL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	41–14	W	O53
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-0
MINN LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
MINN –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
MINNlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL+1.8 →−1.5▼ 3.3#70

MINN−0.1 →+0.9▲ 1.0#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

MINN

#28

Offense

◀ UL better

#98

#55

Defense

◀ UL better

#73

−1.0 #123

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.8 #23

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ UL faster

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #21	21.0 #52	UL
Yards / play	7.01 #22	5.72 #86	UL
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.08 #70	UL
Success rate	50% #21	42% #84	UL

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	MINN off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #108	27.5 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.21 #102	4.92 #40	UL
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	0.00 #43	UL
Success rate	41% #84	37% #44	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UL scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	6.0 #60	12.0 #26	18.0 #42	9.5 #25	11.3 #8	20.8 #8
MINN allowed	1.8 #9	6.8 #64	8.5 #41	3.3 #27	7.8 #94	11.0 #67

MINN scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	1.8 #121	10.0 #50	11.8 #95	5.0 #86	3.8 #113	8.8 #117
UL allowed	2.5 #27	3.3 #12	5.8 #12	9.5 #121	12.3 #126	21.8 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.