Texas A&M vs Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

3-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-2 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

TA&M -6.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 32–24 ARK

✓ TA&M (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTA&M -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARK, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 34–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 6.3; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Close	MIZ vs MEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	34–27	W	O52
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	ALA vs KSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-7.5	45–20	W	O58
Close	UGA vs CIN 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	24–21	L	U53
Close	OU vs ISU 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	27–21	W	U59.5
Loose	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Loose	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-7	17–29	L	U56
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	16–21	L	U45
Loose	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-6	28–31	L	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TA&M WLWW	3-1	75%	—	3-1
ARK WLLW	2-2	50%	—	1-0

Venue/role: TA&M neutral, as favorite; ARK neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
ARK OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 65 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&Mlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
ARKlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TA&M 38–42 ARK (3 tied) ARK leads · 83 games since 1903 · TA&M has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+10.3 →+18.1▲ 7.8#6

ARK+3.7 →+5.4▲ 1.7#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TA&M

Longer bar = better

ARK

#25

Offense

Even

#36

#40

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#57

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

+1.0 #19

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #16	22.8 #63	TA&M
Yards / play	6.53 #32	5.38 #68	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.34 #15	−0.01 #41	TA&M
Success rate	48% #36	38% #54	Even

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #32	17.8 #31	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #66	4.85 #38	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.32 #19	+0.10 #77	ARK
Success rate	50% #26	33% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.3 #35	13.0 #17	21.3 #18	10.0 #20	8.5 #48	18.5 #22
ARK allowed	5.0 #80	5.0 #40	10.0 #53	7.8 #107	5.0 #48	12.8 #86

ARK scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	11.3 #12	10.3 #45	21.5 #15	6.0 #68	9.0 #41	15.0 #55
TA&M allowed	1.8 #9	6.8 #64	8.5 #41	3.3 #27	6.0 #66	9.3 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.