Missouri @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

4-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

2-3 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

MIZ -14

✓ MIZ W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 33–20 VAN

✓ MIZ (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -14

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -14

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 14-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 13.6; 65.5 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	24–31	L	U58
Very close	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	41–7	W	U56
Very close	BSU @ HAW 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	40–32	L	O55.5
Very close	IOWA @ ILL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	35–21	P	O52.5
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	BC @ SYR 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	16–13	L	U54
Very close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LLWW	2-2	50%	—	1-2
VAN LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
VAN OOOOO	5-0	100%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
VANlast 5	2-3 40%	0-5 0%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+0.4 →+5.8▲ 5.4#36

VAN+2.1 →−6.0▼ 8.1#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIZ

Longer bar = better

VAN

#40

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#81

#45

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#90

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

−0.8 #114

64 plays #98

Pace

VAN faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #60	32.4 #115	MIZ
Yards / play	6.78 #27	5.68 #84	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.26 #37	+0.15 #98	MIZ
Success rate	48% #35	39% #61	MIZ

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	VAN off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #47	20.8 #51	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #64	4.68 #32	MIZ
PPA / play	−0.04 #124	+0.08 #71	MIZ
Success rate	40% #89	35% #26	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.5 #34	9.5 #57	18.0 #42	3.3 #118	9.3 #29	12.5 #76
VAN allowed	6.8 #104	10.2 #105	17.0 #110	5.4 #74	10.0 #121	15.4 #109

VAN scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.8 #72	9.0 #65	14.8 #73	4.8 #93	13.8 #2	18.6 #22
MIZ allowed	4.3 #57	4.3 #34	8.5 #36	5.0 #64	7.3 #89	12.3 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.